Of the last 50 or so seeds that I've dropped in neighbours' towns, only about 5 say they were caught in the receiving town (going by the rewards they paid out).
I'm pretty good, I know what time-zones my neighbours are in and I know they are regular players. Often I drop seeds for them immediately after they've dropped seeds for me - so I know they're playing the game
Maybe I've just been ridiculously unlucky, but the odds are enormously against it.
Any update EA?