September 2021
Allegedly you will receive heirloom shards within 500 packs, but there's no way of knowing just how true that is. I feel like I must have opened close to 500, if not more, but still haven't gotten any. It's kinda shady that there is absolutely no way to track this metric, and I feel like it's because it would be revealed just how random its not. Something tells me that a vast majority of people get the shards in a pack right at or close to 500(assuming that's true), which would prove that its not a random chance, its a calculated system designed to get people to spend money on packs trying to get at least one heirloom, and if they got one early, that could obviously cut into EA's bottom line. So yeah, basically I'm calling you out EA. Show us how many packs we've opened.
September 2021 - last edited September 2021
This calculator can provide you with a rough estimate, provided you have some basic info related to comics and battle pass. Not the perfect solution, but will have to do
Edit: Some devs did mention a pack calculator feature, but haven't heard anything after that.
September 2021
I'm aware of this calculator. But that doesn't change the fact that there is a reason they don't track this metric publicly. Every other little detail, from stim distance traveled by octane, to number of headshots, to totems activated are tracked, but not Apex packs? Im calling BS
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September 2021 - last edited September 2021
I wouldn't expect this. The only reason we know about that 500 number at all, or the percentage chances for items of different rarity, is because they are legally obligated to provide it.
September 2021
Many reasons they scared so they hide it:
1. Legal issue/lawsuit: Guarantee 500.
If player reach 500 or more and didn't get it, customer complaint/ticket, or worst case, lawsuit will coming.
2. More pack sales
If people know they're too far from 500, they won't buying packs. By keeping it hidden, it will make people curious and curious people tend to gamble by buying packs.
3. Hide bugs
If there's issue with probability mechanism, no body will knows unless Respawn said so.
4. Hide the scam behind probability.
If there's scam where most people only get when above 450, no body will knows.
September 2021