What are the chances of you getting an heirloom in Apex Legends? [ Edited ]

[mrfreeID]

I've spent a decent amount of money on this game. I've always bought Apex packs so one day I could get a heirloom, but that day still hasn't came yet. I've bought around 200-250 packs and still nothing. Is it ever guaranteed after so many packs? Or, do you just have to be lucky? Olansi China

[DarthValtrex]

@mrfreeID There is a guarantee at 500 packs opened. Depending on the number of battle passes you have completed, how long you have played and how many events you have completed you could have opened more.

Event packs do NOT count towards the counter. It's only the standard Apex Packs. You have less than a 1% chance of receiving a pack, I would estimate it's some place between .5 and 1% 1/500= .5%..

Apex Packs are entirely RNG based, meaning what you receive is entirely random. The odds of getting an heirloom does not increase with each individual pack opened. So it does not matter if you've opened 10 packs or 450 packs the odds of getting one are always between .5 and 1%.

unless you hit the guarantee, which will override the RNG on 500th pack assuming you have not received one. I have got heirlooms before the 500th pack and I have had to open 500 packs to receive one. I have most of them and can tell you the cheapest way to get them is simply buy them during the events.

[Mr_Mi5ch13f_2]

It is guarunteed after 500 packs. But luck plays a big part. My friend bought the first battle pass and has never spent another pound. He just buys the next one with the coins form the previous pass. He got his heirloom within weeks of the blood hound one coming out. Really lucky as blood hound is his main. I finally got heirloom shards myself last month. I don’t buy packs but I do buy the battle pass each time to support the game. I play a lot and really enjoy it. I don’t know how many packs I have opened as they were all free from levelling up or battlepass. 

[RockDokRock]

@DarthValtrex .5% and 1%?

I would say the odds are far lower than that.

If they were .5% per pack, after 250 packs you would have a better than 71% of having hit an heirloom.  Clearly, that's not right.  That's the math.

One of the biggest problem with loot box mechanics is people who are putting money into them really don't understand the mathematics and how these things are designed to work.  To get what you really want (most people is heirlooms) is pretty much zero.

I did a long post on the FIFA forms a few years ago during TOTY and how "sTrEaMeRs" and "CoNtEnT cReAtOrS" and "PrOs" did pack openings and got nothing after spending 10K+ in FIFA points.  That's how it's supposed to work.  That's the math.  Sadly, the usual conspiracy theorists came out.  You can always tell who paid attention in science/math class and who was eating the glue :-P

- DR

[damsonwhufndthis]

@RockDokRockwhat math is that?

If your math was applied to a coinflip, than getting heads 4 times means you have 200% chance for tails?

I never knew % chances were stacking each unsuccesful roll.

[RockDokRock]

@damsonwhufndthis Basic high school probability.

Taking the claim at face value.  Each pack has an independent probability of 0.5% or 0.005 of having an heirloom (worst case in the claim of 0.5% to 1%.

The chance of *NOT* getting an heirloom in an individual pack therefore must be 99.5% (.995).

If I have 250 apex packs the probability of not getting an heirloom in any of them is .995^{250}.  This is approx 28.5%

Therefore you have a probability of 71.5% of getting at least 1 heriloom in 250 packs if the individual probability weights for an heirloom (per pack) are 0.5%.

In practice these weights may vary, I get that, but for the sake of example the values suggested clearly aren't right.  They will be *far far* lower.

Yes?

% chances don't "stack".  I have no idea what you are on about.

- DR

[Cheese9Man]

@mrfreeID Hey there! Like what everyone have said here the chances of an heirloom is low but there is a hard coded guaranteed heirloom shards at the 500th apex pack. You can roughly estimate your packs using this apex pack counter/calculator https://mike.zarandona.com/coded/apex-packs-calc/

[RockDokRock]

@Cheese9Man Exactly.  One day.... I'm pretty much a day 1 player with level 700+ and nothing yet... :-P

- DR

[DarthValtrex]

@RockDokRock You don't understand how RNG work. The odds do not increase with every pack opened. That's not how statistics work. The odds are a .5% chance FOR EVERY SINGLE pack, meaning you have a 99% chance at drawing something else, EVERY SINGLE PACK. It does not matter if you've opened 250 packs or 1 pack, it always a .5% for every pack opened.

The way you just explained it, you're increasing the percentage for every pack you have opened and it's not how this works or any gambling for that matter.

I don't know how else to explain this to you.

You're basically viewing it as you have 4 different outcomes, you draw one outcome and discard it. Now leaving you with 3 different outcomes.. So you're assuming that the odds of you getting 1 of the 3 outcomes you want is 33.33%.. You then draw another outcome and disgard that, you now have 2 potential outcomes left.. So you have a 50/50 chance at getting what you want.. But this is NOT how the RNG system or packs work. None of the outcomes are disgarded.

That .5% does not aggregate into a larger percentage as you open packs. The odds of heirloom stays at .5% for every single pack. The guarantee is an entirely separate function and nothing more than a counter that resets when you get a heirloom.

[RockDokRock]

@DarthValtrex Yes, i know that.  The math takes that into account.

To show you take coin flipping.  50/50 heads or tails.

Heads, you get an heirloom.  Tails you don't.

One flip is 50/50.  2 outcomes

H or T

Two flips 4 possible outcomes (in this case all equally likely, so 25% chance of each)

H/H

H/T

T/H

T/T

Chance of not getting an heirloom is .5 * .5 (both flips are Tails).  Which is 0.25.  Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75% (which you can see above, each of the 4 events is 25% chance, 3 of the 4 events would give you an heirloom ergo 75% chance).

Which one do you have a better chance at getting the heirloom?  One flip or two?

Exactly the same logic used in my argument before.  That's how probability works.  

That's how probability works over multiple independent events.  This is basic stuff guys.  I am surprised I am having to "show my work".

- DR