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Has the recent loot buff somehow been reverted?

by iluran
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Original Post

Re: Has the recent loot buff somehow been reverted?

★ Guide

I think there is a bug that is nerfing loot.

If the steps in there do not solve it try a reinstall.

https://answers.ea.com/t5/General-Discussion/Possible-Loot-Bug-caused-by-lvl-1-bug-Verified-Hypothes...

Message 11 of 18 (162 Views)

Re: Has the recent loot buff somehow been reverted?

★★★★ Apprentice

I think a lot of people just have a really hard time understanding RNG. Just because there's a bigger chance of getting something, doesn't mean you are guaranteed to get it. Even with three 6's on a die, you can still roll a 1. If you rolled the die three times in a row, you might still not get a single six. That's just how chance works.

Message 12 of 18 (154 Views)

Re: Has the recent loot buff somehow been reverted?

★★★ Apprentice

I agree with this post actually came to forums to see if anyone else was having this problem. Multiple gm2 tyrant runs to only get the last 2 from boss. Was averaging about 4 to 5 initially when the loot was changed and getting now about 2 blues every chest and zero masterwork.I dont mind the purple can break them down for consumables. Running the same loadout with the same amount of luck.

Message 13 of 18 (139 Views)

Re: Has the recent loot buff somehow been reverted?

★ Pro

I think a lot of people just have a really hard time understanding probability and statistics.  Just because it's theoretically possible to have a dry spell with your RNG for weeks, doesn't mean that it's actually plausible.

Message 14 of 18 (132 Views)

Re: Has the recent loot buff somehow been reverted?

★ Pro

@2Weak2Live wrote:

I think a lot of people just have a really hard time understanding probability and statistics.  Just because it's theoretically possible to have a dry spell with your RNG for weeks, doesn't mean that it's actually plausible.


basically this..the probability of rolling a one three times in a row should be just as low..but its not.

Message 15 of 18 (119 Views)

Re: Has the recent loot buff somehow been reverted?

★★★★ Apprentice

@2Weak2Live wrote:

I think a lot of people just have a really hard time understanding probability and statistics.  Just because it's theoretically possible to have a dry spell with your RNG for weeks, doesn't mean that it's actually plausible.


Actually that's not how probability works. Probability is only really relevant on large sample sizes. If you get no mw in ten stronghold runs, that is perfectly possible. If you flip a coin 10 times, you may well end up with results that deviates far from the probable (the probable being 50/50). You may well end up with 8 heads. Or even 10. But if you flip a coin 10 million times, you will absolutely not end up with 10 million heads, or 8 or 9 million.

 

The rule of large numbers says, that the more times you iterate an experiment, the more the result will approach the most likely outcome. Flip a coin 10 times, anything is possible. Flip it 10 million times, and you'll end up with a result that is very close to 50/50. Because the statistical likelihood of not getting that result, with such a large sample size, is so unlikely that it will never happen.

 

So if someone is having a dry spell for a couple of days, that is neither here nor there. Now if you show sample data from hundreds of thousands of HoR runs, then the pattern becomes much more plausible. 

Message 16 of 18 (98 Views)

Re: Has the recent loot buff somehow been reverted?

★★ Expert

@rune0077 wrote:

@2Weak2Live wrote:

I think a lot of people just have a really hard time understanding probability and statistics.  Just because it's theoretically possible to have a dry spell with your RNG for weeks, doesn't mean that it's actually plausible.


Actually that's not how probability works. Probability is only really relevant on large sample sizes. If you get no mw in ten stronghold runs, that is perfectly possible. If you flip a coin 10 times, you may well end up with results that deviates far from the probable (the probable being 50/50). You may well end up with 8 heads. Or even 10. But if you flip a coin 10 million times, you will absolutely not end up with 10 million heads, or 8 or 9 million.

 

The rule of large numbers says, that the more times you iterate an experiment, the more the result will approach the most likely outcome. Flip a coin 10 times, anything is possible. Flip it 10 million times, and you'll end up with a result that is very close to 50/50. Because the statistical likelihood of not getting that result, with such a large sample size, is so unlikely that it will never happen.

 

So if someone is having a dry spell for a couple of days, that is neither here nor there. Now if you show sample data from hundreds of thousands of HoR runs, then the pattern becomes much more plausible. 


Very nicely explained and absolutely correct.

Message 17 of 18 (93 Views)

Re: Has the recent loot buff somehow been reverted?

★★ Pro

Hit 30 last night, and Im farming GM2.
I got 1 legendary and probably 20 masterworks

Message 18 of 18 (84 Views)
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