@Zentaika it's guaranteed on 500th pack, not lvl 500. You get 199 free packs, and even if you complete all BP you end up at 300. Quests give you packs too, so still 140 ish to go.
Tbh, you can't go to a casino and complain you aren't winning. It's made to milk money from you. I didn't spend a single penny on Apex packs and got heirloom shards. You spent money and still didn't get it, you see the problem here?